By Luke Fletcher ｜ Ft Collins, Colorado

Saturday, Sept. 12 | 6 p.m. HT / Midnight ET | MW+
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii

Two weeks into the 2026 season, Hawaii is already in a situation that feels more significant than just another September non-conference game. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 after tough losses to Stanford and UNLV, turning what started as an optimistic season into a quest for solutions. Meanwhile, New Mexico State comes to Honolulu with a 1-1 record, fresh off a dominant 51-14 win against Mercyhurst, potentially making Hawaii’s rocky start even tougher.

For head coach Timmy Chang and his team, this game is about more than just avoiding an 0-3 record; it’s crucial for them to show that their early struggles are just growing pains and not indicative of deeper issues. The Rainbow Warriors are eager to secure their first win after a challenging start, where they fell to Stanford (37-27) and UNLV (21-6). Chang is pushing for improved offensive consistency, especially from young quarterback Micah Alejado, who has thrown for 448 yards but has been under constant pressure, taking seven sacks in the first two games. Despite missing some practice time earlier in the week due to a taped calf, Alejado is expected to be ready to lead the team on Saturday.

Hawaii Needs an Offensive Reset

The biggest letdown over the first two games has been the offense, which just hasn’t been able to get it going. Hawaii is only putting up an average of 16.5 points and 309.5 total yards per game, with a meager 82 rushing yards each outing. While the passing game is a bit better at 227.5 yards per game, the Rainbow Warriors struggle to convert those yards into actual points. Quarterback Micah Alejado is crucial to the team’s success. Although he missed practice on Tuesday for a recovery day after two tough games, coach Chang expects him to be ready for Saturday. It’s vital for Alejado to find his rhythm early, as the team can’t afford to fall behind again. The real challenge lies in the supporting cast; Hawaii needs to develop a solid running game to prevent New Mexico State from just zeroing in on the quarterback. In their last game against UNLV, Alejado was sacked five times, and the Rebels dominated defensively, limiting Hawai‘i to just six points. If the Warriors become one-dimensional again, New Mexico State’s defense will be more than capable of capitalizing on that weakness.

Don’t Sleep on New Mexico State

The Aggies’ 1-1 record doesn’t fully capture their performance so far. They kicked off the season with a solid 34-17 defeat against Florida State but bounced back impressively, dominating Mercyhurst 51-14. Quarterback T.J. Hedden has been on fire, throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns against Florida State, then following it up with 253 yards and another two scores against Mercyhurst. Averaging 436 yards and 34 points per game, their offensive stats are looking much better than those of Hawaii. However, Hawaii needs to pay close attention to turnovers, as New Mexico State has forced at least one in 18 straight games. Safety Nick Session has already snagged two interceptions this season, including a pick-six against Mercyhurst. This makes ball security crucial for Alejado, as Hawaii can’t afford to give the Aggies’ potent offense any easy opportunities. Despite their recent success, New Mexico State faces a historical challenge, as they have never won in Honolulu, holding an 0-7 record on the island.

Can Hawaii Stop the Run?

This could be a game-changer. Hawaii has been giving up around 203 rushing yards per game in their first two outings, and UNLV took full advantage by dominating the line and running all over the Warriors. New Mexico State doesn’t need to ditch their passing game entirely, but they should definitely focus on testing Hawaii’s run defense right from the start, making the Warriors show they can handle the pressure. If the Aggies can keep getting into manageable second-and-5 and third-and-2 situations, Hawaii might find themselves struggling to get their defense off the field again. Adding to their woes, opponents have converted 45.2% of their third downs against the Warriors so far. To turn things around, Hawaii needs to create negative plays on early downs and push New Mexico State into clear passing situations. Under coordinator Dennis Thurman, the Warriors’ defense has kept them in games early on, but they still haven’t forced a turnover this season. They’ll be up against a seasoned New Mexico State offense looking to take control early, especially with the challenges of long travel and time zone changes.

The Island Advantage

Hawaii has a significant historical edge when it comes to facing New Mexico State. The Rainbow Warriors have never lost to the Aggies at home, boasting a perfect 7-0 record in Honolulu while averaging an impressive 38.7 points per game in those matchups. Overall, Hawaii leads the series 11-1. However, their last encounter was much tighter, with New Mexico State holding a 14-point lead in the second half before Hawaii made a comeback to win 20-17, thanks to a last-second field goal by Matthew Shipley. This Saturday’s game could mirror that intensity, as New Mexico State has the experience and offensive firepower to challenge Hawai‘i. The real question is whether the Aggies can finally secure a win on the islands.

Three Keys to the Game

1. Protect Micah Alejado. Hawaii cannot allow another five-sack performance. Give Alejado time and there should be opportunities against the New Mexico State secondary.

2. Hawaii must find a running game. At 82 rushing yards per game, the Warriors haven’t been balanced enough. Even getting into the 120-140-yard range would dramatically change how New Mexico State has to defend them.

3. Win the turnover battle. New Mexico State’s 18-game turnover streak is legitimate. Hawai‘i can’t give the Aggies extra possessions, especially if New Mexico State is already having success running the football.

Hawaii is currently favored by about a touchdown, but I don’t see this being an easy win for them. New Mexico State has been playing some solid football lately, showing they can pass effectively, force turnovers, and score points. If Hawaii performs like they did against UNLV, they might end up 0-3. However, this game feels like a chance for Timmy Chang’s squad to bounce back. With Alejado expected to improve, the Rainbow Warriors returning home, and their offensive talent, they should be able to step up their game. I anticipate New Mexico State will stay competitive well into the second half, but eventually, Alejado will lead a couple of big drives to secure the win.

Final Score Prediction: Hawaii 30, New Mexico State 24

Hawaii gets its first victory of 2026, but New Mexico State makes the Rainbow Warriors earn every bit of it.