By Luke Fletcher ｜ Ft Collins, Colorado

Saturday, Sept. 12 | 8 pm MT | FS1 | Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, Colorado

This matchup is a significant moment in college football realignment as North Dakota State, a legendary FCS powerhouse, officially steps into the FBS and joins the Mountain West Conference. For years, NDSU has proven it was more than just an ordinary FCS program, and now, just three games into its FBS journey, the Bison are eager to see how their dominance translates to this new level of competition.

Saturday’s game against Air Force marks a key milestone for NDSU, being their first conference game in the FBS era and the first-ever clash between the two teams. This isn’t just a ceremonial introduction; North Dakota State seems poised to make an immediate impact. With a 2-0 record after strong wins against Jacksonville State and Fordham, they face an Air Force team that is also off to a solid start, having shut out Duquesne in their opener. Both teams have only allowed a total of seven points this season, setting the stage for an intriguing matchup. The game promises to showcase a fascinating clash of styles, with Air Force’s option offense going up against the disciplined, physical football that has made NDSU a modern FCS dynasty.

North Dakota State Isn’t Acting Like a New FBS Team

There was always going to be some buzz about NDSU’s leap to a higher division. The big question was whether the Bison could keep up their FCS success against a full FBS schedule. While two games won’t give us a complete picture, the early signs are looking good. NDSU has dominated Jacksonville State and Fordham, outscoring them 71-7. In their matchup with Fordham, the Bison showcased their classic style by limiting the Rams to just 135 total yards and a mere 19 rushing yards, while forcing four turnovers and controlling the ball for over 33 minutes. This is what North Dakota State football is all about. The opponents and divisions may shift, but the strategy remains the same: run the ball, dominate the line, protect the quarterback, create turnovers, and make the opposition work for every yard. Air Force’s game notes highlight that NDSU is only allowing 52 rushing yards per game, the best in the Mountain West as they head into the weekend, but that stat is about to face a real challenge on Saturday.

The Biggest Matchup: NDSU’s Run Defense vs. Air Force’s Option

Air Force’s game plan is pretty straightforward: they’re all about the run. Expect them to pound the ball repeatedly, and once the defense starts creeping up to stop the run, they’ll mix in some option plays, misdirection, and an occasional play-action pass to catch defenders off guard. In their opener against Duquesne, the Falcons showcased their ground game by racking up an impressive 431 rushing yards and controlling the clock for nearly 41 minutes. They outplayed Duquesne with 35 more offensive plays and totaled 450 yards. A whopping seventeen players contributed to the rushing attack, with Rocco Conti leading the charge at 74 yards and Kempher Hodges adding 72 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Liam Szarka is the key player who keeps everything running smoothly. Now, North Dakota State’s discipline will really be put to the test. Defending against the option isn’t just about having strong defensive linemen; every player has a specific role. One defender might take the dive, another the quarterback, and yet another the pitch. If someone tries to be a hero and neglects their assignment, Air Force could easily break off a big gain. NDSU has the physical strength to match up with the Falcons, but the real question is whether they can stick to their assignments for the entire game.

Nathan Hayes Could Be the Difference

NDSU might have a significant edge in their upcoming game. They don’t have to conform entirely to Air Force’s style of play. Quarterback Nathan Hayes has provided enough offensive balance to challenge a Falcons defense that hasn’t yet encountered a true FBS-caliber team. So far, Hayes has completed 32 of 44 passes for 370 yards, with four touchdowns and just one interception over two games. His performance against Fordham was particularly impressive, where he went 18 for 22 for 210 yards and two touchdowns. This is crucial because Air Force’s option offense becomes even more potent when opponents engage in lengthy eight-minute drives. NDSU needs to create explosive plays to force Air Force into a position where they have to play catch-up. Hayes is key to making that happen. With Chris Kiel and Mekhi Collins both contributing with four catches each against Fordham, if Hayes can connect on a couple of big plays through play-action, it could completely shift the dynamics of the game. Air Force prefers not to be in a position where they have to chase points, and NDSU must aim to put them in that situation.

NDSU Still Wants to Establish the Run

Don’t confuse the growing passing game with a shift in the team’s core strategy; North Dakota State is still all about that ground game. Myles Mitchell is leading the charge with 119 rushing yards on 21 carries, while DJ Scott isn’t far behind with 111 yards on 24 attempts and two touchdowns, including a solid performance against Fordham where he racked up 60 yards and two scores.

This sets up an intriguing tactical scenario for NDSU. Rather than turning Saturday’s matchup into a high-scoring affair, the Bison can focus on outmaneuvering Air Force by controlling possession, shortening the game, and dominating the line of scrimmage. It could lead to a game with limited possessions, where every three-and-out is crucial, a turnover could be a game-changer, and failing on a fourth-and-one near midfield might completely alter the momentum.

Don’t Overlook the NDSU Defense

What stands out most about North Dakota State’s impressive 2-0 start isn’t just their offense; it’s their defense that’s stealing the spotlight. They’ve allowed a mere 3.5 points per game, putting them right behind Air Force, which leads the Mountain West with a perfect 0.0 scoring defense. In their game against Fordham, NDSU showcased their defensive prowess by snagging three interceptions and recovering a fumble. Marion Moore even took one of those interceptions back for a 37-yard touchdown, while teammates Keith Williams and Walker Braaten also contributed with picks, and Logan Larson recovered a fumble. Linebacker Gavin Sell was a standout with six tackles and a sack, but the real game-changer has been Kelton McCaslin, who has racked up 3.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. As they prepare to face Air Force, those tackles for loss will be crucial; putting the Falcons in tougher situations like second-and-12 instead of second-and-6 can really disrupt their game plan and help NDSU achieve one of their key defensive goals.

Air Force’s Defense Deserves Respect Too

North Dakota State shouldn’t take the Falcons lightly, as Air Force has shown impressive defensive skills. In their last game, Air Force completely stifled Duquesne, allowing just 107 total yards and forcing multiple turnovers, including two interceptions. Blake Fletcher stood out with seven tackles and a sack, while Korey Johnson contributed with an interception and two pass breakups. Now, they face a tougher challenge against NDSU’s offensive line and quarterback Nathan Hayes. This matchup promises to reveal a lot more about both teams compared to their previous performances. With both sides coming off strong defensive showings, expect a hard-fought game characterized by Air Force’s ball-control triple-option and NDSU’s disciplined ground attack, which has already shown dominance in the trenches this season.

The Altitude Factor Matters

North Dakota State has faced its share of tough venues, but Falcon Stadium brings a unique set of challenges. Located over 6,000 feet above sea level, Colorado Springs adds altitude to the mix, which can wear down players, especially when matched against an Air Force offense that thrives on making defenders work hard. As the game progresses, particularly in the fourth quarter, fatigue could become a significant issue if the Bison’s defense is forced to stay on the field for long stretches. This is where strategic defensive substitutions will be crucial. If Air Force manages to string together an 11- or 12-play drive, the toll on NDSU’s defense could be substantial. To alleviate this pressure, the Bison’s offense must step up; maintaining sustained drives is not just important, it’s essential for their success in this matchup.

Five Keys to the Game

1. NDSU must play assignment football. The Bison can’t allow Air Force’s option to create explosive plays because defenders abandon responsibilities.
2. Nathan Hayes needs to hit vertical throws. NDSU doesn’t need 350 passing yards, but two or three explosive completions could be decisive.
3. Air Force has to stay ahead of the chains. Third-and-2 makes the Falcons incredibly difficult to defend. Third-and-9 is an entirely different offense.
4. NDSU must survive the altitude and possession battle. The Bison can’t allow Air Force to hold the ball for 40 minutes like it did against Duquesne.
5. Win the turnover margin. In what could be a low-possession game, one interception or fumble may represent an entire possession that cannot be recovered.

This is precisely the kind of challenge North Dakota State was looking for when it transitioned to the FBS. They’re not facing a powerhouse like Ohio State or Georgia, nor are they in a situation where everyone anticipates a blowout in their favor. Instead, they’re up against a tough road game against a well-established FBS team that runs a unique offensive scheme. The combination of Air Force’s option offense, the setting of Falcon Stadium, and the high altitude makes this a tricky matchup. The Falcons excel at controlling the game clock and maintaining momentum, making them a formidable opponent. However, I have faith in North Dakota State. The key factor is their dominance at the line of scrimmage. NDSU has built its entire program on a foundation of physical football, and their early defensive stats indicate that this toughness has carried over to the FBS level. While Air Force will undoubtedly rack up rushing yards, NDSU is better equipped than most to withstand that physicality. On the offensive side, quarterback Hayes brings a dynamic element that Air Force didn’t have to contend with against Duquesne, allowing for potential explosive plays. I anticipate that Air Force might frustrate NDSU in the beginning and could even lead at halftime. However, as the game progresses, I expect NDSU’s defensive line to start making impactful plays, Hayes to connect on some deep passes, and ultimately, the Bison to secure a late defensive stop, marking a strong start to their Mountain West journey.

Final Score Prediction: North Dakota State 24, Air Force 20

North Dakota State’s move to the FBS was never supposed to be about simply surviving. Saturday night in Colorado Springs gives the Bison their first opportunity to show the rest of the Mountain West that they intend to contend immediately.