By Luke Fletcher ｜ Ft Collins, Colorado

One of the most exciting matchups in college football’s opening weekend is happening in Fargo, where North Dakota State kicks off its journey as an FBS program against Jacksonville State. Few teams are as well-prepared for this transition as North Dakota State, which has spent over a decade establishing itself as a powerhouse in the FCS, clinching 10 national titles from 2011 to 2024. Now stepping into the Mountain West, they face Jacksonville State, a team that has quickly proven its mettle by winning 27 games in its first three FBS seasons, making it to back-to-back Conference USA championship games, and finishing last season with a 9-5 record, capped off by a victory over Troy in the Veterans Bowl. This matchup isn’t just a formality for NDSU; it’s a crucial test to see if they can hold their own in the Mountain West. The betting odds reflect this anticipation, with North Dakota State starting as a seven-point favorite, although that number has dipped from an initial line of around ten points.

The biggest question for NDSU: Can it replace its stars?

North Dakota State has built a solid reputation, but its current roster isn’t just a continuation of its dominant FCS legacy as it moves to FBS. The team has seen some key departures, including quarterback Cole Payton and wide receiver Bryce Lance, which means Nathan Hayes, who has been with the program for four years but only attempted 44 passes last season, will step into the quarterback role. While he doesn’t need to be a superstar right away, Hayes must manage the offense effectively and let the team’s strengths shine through. A major part of that strength lies in the experienced offensive line, featuring players like Griffin Empey, Nate Tastad, and Josh Magin. Last season, the Bison averaged 5.2 yards per rush, and DJ Scott is ready to take on a bigger role after showing promise with 5.3 yards per carry. This could be crucial, especially since Jacksonville State struggled defensively, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game and returning only five starters. If NDSU can establish a solid ground game, Hayes won’t need to rely on throwing the ball excessively to secure a win.

Jacksonville State has the game’s most dangerous player

Jacksonville State has a real shot at causing an upset, and a big part of that is their quarterback, Caden Creel. He’s the kind of player who can really challenge NDSU’s defense. Last season, he racked up 1,514 passing yards and 1,075 rushing yards, with six games where he hit both 100 yards passing and rushing. With a 7-2 record in his nine starts, Creel’s versatility shines through in zone reads, RPOs, and designed runs, keeping defenders on their toes every play. And if defenses start stacking the box to stop him? That’s when Jacksonville State can unleash their 6-foot-8 target, Deondre Johnson, who can dominate in the air and make big plays downfield. If the Gamecocks pull off a win, you can bet Creel will be the driving force behind it.

But Jacksonville State has a major problem

Creel is facing a tough situation after losing significant talent. The most notable departure is running back Cam Cook, who transferred to West Virginia after an impressive season leading the nation in rushing. Additionally, Jacksonville State needs to fill the gaps left by four starters on an offensive line that was crucial in achieving an average of 246.8 rushing yards per game last year. This challenge is already daunting, but doing it in the Fargodome against North Dakota State’s formidable defense makes it even tougher. Last season, NDSU’s defense was stingy, allowing just 13 points and 251.8 yards per game, with opponents managing only 3.2 yards per rush. They also racked up 33 sacks, 19 interceptions, and forced 28 turnovers, while limiting third-down conversions to a mere 30.8%. Despite some changes in personnel, the core of their defensive strength remains intact. Key players like nose guard Keenan Wilson, who had eight tackles for loss, along with experienced safeties Darius Givance, Kelton McCaslin, and Donovan Woolen, provide a solid foundation. The matchup between Jacksonville State’s revamped offensive line and NDSU’s defensive front could be the most critical aspect of the game.

The Fargodome factor

Fargo is the perfect backdrop for North Dakota State’s first game in the FBS. Jacksonville State faces a tough challenge as they try to coordinate a brand-new offensive line in one of the loudest indoor stadiums in college football. This environment can lead to false starts and missed assignments, which are particularly detrimental for an option-based offense where one bad play can derail an entire drive. Jacksonville State definitely doesn’t want to find themselves in a second-and-12 or third-and-9 situation. The Gamecocks need Creel to keep the defense guessing on early downs, while North Dakota State’s game plan should focus on maintaining discipline on the edges, making it hard for Creel to read the defense easily, and pushing Jacksonville State into clear passing scenarios. If the Bison can execute this strategy, they will gain a significant advantage.

Three things that will decide the game

1. Jacksonville State’s offensive line vs. NDSU’s front. Five new starters trying to function together in Fargo is a difficult opening assignment. If the Bison control the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville State’s entire offense becomes harder to operate.

2. Nathan Hayes protecting the football. Jacksonville State has forced at least 24 turnovers in each of the past three seasons. NDSU doesn’t need Hayes to become Cole Payton immediately. It needs him to avoid giving Jacksonville State short fields.

3. Containing Caden Creel. NDSU probably isn’t going to completely stop him. The question is whether the Bison can prevent the 40- and 50-yard plays that can flip this game.

Prediction: North Dakota State 31, Jacksonville State 17

Jacksonville State has the potential to make things tense in their matchup. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gamecocks even take the lead at some point in the first half, thanks to Creel’s skill and athleticism, which offers something NDSU can’t fully replicate, plus Johnson as a solid big-play threat. However, when it comes to the full game, I have more faith in North Dakota State’s strength along the line. The loss of Cam Cook for Jacksonville State is a big deal, but losing four offensive linemen while going up against NDSU in Fargo is an even bigger challenge. The Bison should be able to establish their running game, keeping Hayes out of tough third downs and gradually exhausting Jacksonville State’s defense. On the flip side, NDSU’s defensive line is likely to create enough disruptions to hinder Creel from maintaining drives. There’s also a larger context to consider; North Dakota State isn’t just another program moving up to FBS. They have a solid track record of defeating FBS teams and have been functioning with the expectations and toughness of a bigger program for years. This Saturday is just their chance to show they can keep that up week after week.