By Luke Fletcher ｜ Ft Collins, Colorado

One of the most exciting matchups of college football’s opening weekend is set to take place late Saturday night, as Memphis heads to Allegiant Stadium to take on UNLV. This Week 0 clash kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on FOX, with UNLV favored by about 4.5 points and the over/under around 56.5. It’s the first time these two teams will meet, and there’s a lot to be curious about regarding both squads. Memphis is kicking off the Charles Huff era with a roster that has seen significant changes, while UNLV is looking to build on a successful first season under Dan Mullen, where they notched 10 wins. For both teams aiming to make a mark in the Group of Six and potentially eyeing a College Football Playoff spot, this game is a chance to shine on a national stage. However, facing a more established UNLV team in Las Vegas poses a tough challenge for Memphis as they start their season.

A New Era Begins at Memphis

Memphis has established itself as a strong contender among Group of Six programs. Last season, the Tigers finished with an 8-5 record and boasted a solid 50-25 mark over six years under Ryan Silverfield, who has since moved on to coach at Arkansas. Now, with Huff stepping in after a successful stint at Southern Miss, where he turned a struggling 1-11 team into a bowl-eligible squad with seven wins, the focus shifts to how he will manage Memphis. However, Huff’s challenge is more than just taking over; he’s essentially revamped the roster, bringing in 81 newcomers, including 61 transfers. This influx of talent makes Memphis an intriguing team in college football, but it also raises questions as they head into their first game. While talent is important, the real challenge lies in building continuity. It’s one thing to gather skilled players through the transfer portal, but getting them to work seamlessly together, especially in a tough away game against a solid opponent, is a different ball game. This is especially crucial for the offensive line and defense, where effective communication and discipline are key and can be tough to establish in just one offseason.

Dallan Hayden Gives Memphis Something to Build Around

Dallan Hayden, a running back who transferred from Colorado, could really help ease the transition for the team this season. With 1,185 career rushing yards and eight touchdowns under his belt, he gives Coach Huff a solid player to build the offense around, which is crucial against a UNLV defense that struggled last year. The Rebels allowed an average of 419.1 yards per game in 2025 and were notorious for giving up big plays, ranking second in the nation with 52 plays of 25 yards or more. This sets the stage for Memphis, as if Hayden can establish a strong running game, it could lead to some explosive plays that might put UNLV on the back foot. This potential has led to some national predictions favoring Memphis and the points. However, Memphis faces a challenge of its own, as UNLV also has a strong running game.

Jai’Den Thomas Could Be the Difference

Memphis needs to keep a close eye on UNLV’s running back Jai’Den Thomas this Saturday night. Last season, he racked up 1,036 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 7.0 yards per carry. On top of that, he added 39 receptions for 237 yards and another touchdown, making him a tough challenge for a defense that’s just starting to gel. Thomas allows UNLV to play to its strengths, minimizing the pressure on the quarterback while forcing Memphis to focus on gap control and tackling in open space. This could highlight the experience gap between the two teams. While Memphis has its share of talent, UNLV is benefiting from a solid system in its second year under Mullen, along with one of the most effective running backs in the Group of Six. In a season opener, that could make all the difference.

Dan Mullen’s Second Season Could Look Different

Mullen’s inaugural season in Las Vegas proved that UNLV’s recent achievements weren’t just a result of the previous coaching staff’s efforts. The Rebels finished with a solid 10-4 record and made it to the Mountain West Championship Game, raising the bar for expectations beyond just staying competitive. Now, the goal is to truly contend for titles. As UNLV heads into 2026, they’re seen as strong contenders in the Mountain West, and Saturday’s game will serve as a crucial test. This matchup isn’t against a lower-tier FCS team; Memphis is aiming for the American championship, making it a prime chance for Mullen and the Rebels to showcase their potential as serious players in the Group of Six race, even before many other teams have kicked off their seasons.

The Quarterback Question

The quarterback situation is the biggest question mark for both teams heading into Saturday’s game. With uncertainty at that position, the effectiveness of the supporting players becomes crucial. This scenario benefits the team that can maintain a steady rhythm. For Memphis, this involves getting the ball to Hayden, steering clear of predictable passing situations, and stopping UNLV’s defense from making big plays. On the flip side, UNLV should rely on Thomas and challenge Memphis to show that their revamped defense can handle the run game. Ultimately, the quarterback who avoids costly mistakes could be the one to lead their team to victory. Neither squad needs their quarterback to be a superstar; they just need someone who can play efficiently.

Don’t Ignore UNLV’s Defensive Problems

This game isn’t exactly a straightforward choice. UNLV’s defense raises some serious concerns, as they ranked low in various defensive stats last season, sitting at 119th in adjusted EPA per play and 127th in EPA allowed against the run. Memphis is likely to exploit these weaknesses right from the start. If Hayden has a standout performance and the Tigers’ offensive line holds strong, we could see plenty of big plays, potentially turning this matchup into a high-scoring affair. That’s likely why the total is around 56.5; both teams have running backs who can make a significant impact, and with both defenses facing their own issues, a low-scoring game seems unlikely.

The Allegiant Stadium Factor

There’s another factor that really stands out. Memphis is set to kick off the season with a cross-country trip to Allegiant Stadium. UNLV has been working hard to create a true college football atmosphere there, and this Saturday will be the Rebels’ second straight season opener in Week 0. For a seasoned team, this might not be a big deal, but for Memphis, which has over 80 new players and is under a fresh coaching staff, it’s a significant challenge. Season openers often come with their fair share of early penalties, missed assignments, and communication hiccups, and doing it away from home only adds to the pressure. This uncertainty was echoed in the r/CFB matchup discussion, where many commenters pointed out Memphis’ roster changes and concerns about their offensive line as reasons to lean towards UNLV.

Three Things That Will Decide the Game

1. Can Memphis stop Jai’Den Thomas?

Everything starts here. If Thomas consistently produces five or six yards on first down, Mullen can control the game. UNLV can stay out of obvious passing situations, control possession and keep Memphis’ offense on the sideline. Memphis has to force UNLV’s quarterbacks to win the game.

2. Can UNLV prevent explosive plays?

This was one of the Rebels’ biggest problems last season. Memphis doesn’t need 12-play scoring drives if Hayden and the Tigers’ playmakers can turn missed tackles into 40-yard gains. UNLV doesn’t necessarily need to become an elite defense overnight. It simply can’t repeatedly give Memphis free touchdowns.

3. Which reconstructed roster looks comfortable first?

Week 0 football can be ugly. That’s especially true when transfer-heavy rosters are involved. The team that avoids turnovers, penalties, blown assignments and special-teams mistakes probably wins. And that may ultimately be the biggest reason to lean toward UNLV.

Prediction: UNLV Makes the Plays Late

Memphis can be a tough place to play. Huff has shown he can turn a football program around quickly, and the Tigers have enough talent to compete in the American. However, relying on over 80 newcomers to gel right away in their first game, especially against a solid 10-win team on the road, is a big ask. UNLV doesn’t need to dominate; they just need to play a cleaner game. With Thomas as a key offensive player, Mullen has a solid foundation while the quarterback situation sorts itself out. Playing at home should give them an edge, and even though UNLV’s defense might give up some yards, Memphis’ revamped defense has its own uncertainties. Both teams are likely to move the ball well, and Hayden should find some success against UNLV’s defense. Expect Memphis to keep it close into the fourth quarter, but ultimately, UNLV’s experience, strong running game, and home-field advantage should tip the scales in their favor.

Prediction: UNLV 34, Memphis 27

The Rebels don’t run away from Memphis, but Thomas helps UNLV control the fourth quarter and Mullen’s team gets one critical defensive stop to put the game away.

UNLV starts 1-0.

And by the time most of the country wakes up Sunday morning, the Rebels may already have their first significant resume win of 2026.