By Luke Fletcher ｜ Ft Collins, Colorado

The New Mexico Lobos and New Mexico State Aggies are set to reignite one of college football’s longest-standing rivalries this Saturday in Las Cruces. This marks the 116th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry, a tradition that began in the 1890s and has continued annually since 1946, with the exception of the 2020 season impacted by COVID-19. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on the CBS Sports Network

As the teams gear up for this rivalry week, they come in with contrasting records: New Mexico stands at 2-1, while New Mexico State is 1-2. The Lobos are riding a wave of optimism after a tough 14-6 loss to No. 24 Oklahoma, where they impressively limited the Sooners to just 61 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. On the other hand, New Mexico State is coming off a bye week following a 29-19 defeat at Hawaii, where they fought back from a 16-point deficit to tie the game at 19-19 before ultimately falling short.

New Mexico: The Defense Has Changed Everything

Jason Eck’s inaugural season in Albuquerque saw the Lobos finish with a solid 9-4 record and secure a bowl game, and early signs in Year 2 suggest they might not just be a flash in the pan. The standout aspect so far has been the defense, which has shown significant improvement. New Mexico kicked off the season with a convincing 38-7 win over Central Michigan, followed by an impressive 70-7 rout of Mercyhurst, and then held Oklahoma to just 14 points in Norman. However, the game against Oklahoma highlighted another issue: the offense missed several scoring chances. The Lobos are still alternating between quarterbacks Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae, both of whom are expected to see action against New Mexico State. While the offense has thrived against weaker teams, it only managed six points against Oklahoma, raising the crucial question for Saturday: can New Mexico not only move the ball but also finish drives effectively?

New Mexico State Has Some Weapons

Don’t overlook the Aggies just because they have a 1-2 record. New Mexico State is putting up an impressive 29 points and 417.7 yards of offense each game, with 282 of those yards coming from the air. Quarterback Trey Hedden has been key in establishing a strong vertical passing game, averaging 14.3 yards per completion. Wide receiver TK King has made a mark with 14 catches for 239 yards and two touchdowns, while AJ Williams III has chipped in with eight receptions for 135 yards. On the ground, running back James Jones is also making waves, boasting 243 yards on 43 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt. This diverse offensive strategy gives New Mexico State the tools they need to challenge the Lobo defense effectively.

The Matchup That Could Decide It

The most captivating clash is definitely the showdown between New Mexico’s defense and New Mexico State’s offense. The Lobos recently proved they can challenge even a ranked Oklahoma team, showcasing their defensive prowess. On the flip side, New Mexico State has been impressively consistent, converting 52.5% of their third downs, which puts them at the top of Conference USA and 17th in the nation. The Aggies aren’t just playing it safe either; with players like King and Williams, they can really stretch the field and keep defenses guessing. If New Mexico can force the Aggies into third-and-long situations and limit those big plays, it could play to their strengths, which they’ve shown in their first three games. However, if New Mexico State manages to stay ahead of the chains and keeps the Lobos’ defense on the field, they have the offensive firepower to make things tough for New Mexico right up until the end.

Don’t Forget the Turnovers

New Mexico should really pay attention to this statistic: New Mexico State has managed to force a turnover in 19 straight games, making it the longest active streak in the nation, according to the school. Out of those games, they’ve snagged interceptions in 14 and even scored two defensive touchdowns this season. This is particularly significant as UNM is still working on developing two quarterbacks. The Aggies will likely want to avoid a simple line-of-scrimmage battle; instead, they need to create shorter fields, steal a possession, and possibly score points through their defense.

Rivalry Factor

The historical record predominantly supports New Mexico; however, recent encounters have been more competitive. Since 2022, New Mexico State has achieved a balanced record of 2-2 against UNM, and their overall performance since 2016 stands at 4-5. The Aggies secured their latest victory in Albuquerque in 2023, where Diego Pavia guided NMSU to a 27-17 triumph. In response, New Mexico has claimed victory in the subsequent two matchups, including a decisive 38-20 win in 2025. With Saturday’s game taking place in Las Cruces, New Mexico State is likely to feel confident, especially following the Lobos’ strong performance against Oklahoma.

Final Prediction

New Mexico State has the offensive firepower to make this matchup much more interesting than UNM’s earlier wins. With Jones’s running ability and King as a dynamic receiving option, the Aggies have a solid chance to pull off an upset, especially given their knack for creating turnovers.

However, the Lobos’ defensive showing against Oklahoma is hard to overlook. They seem capable of clinching a win without relying on their offense to rack up 35 or 40 points. If they can hold onto the ball and limit New Mexico State’s big plays, their defense is likely to dominate the game.

Final Prediction: New Mexico 27, New Mexico State 17

Expect the Aggies to keep the Rio Grande Rivalry close into the second half before the Lobos’ defense creates separation and New Mexico earns its third consecutive victory over its in-state rival.