By Luke Fletcher | Ft. Collins, CO

When (3) Wichita State takes on (6) Wyoming Tuesday night in the Tulsa region of the NIT, the first instinct is to lean toward the Shockers. They’re the higher seed, they have the more explosive offense, and they’ve got one of the best scorers on the floor.

But this matchup feels like the kind of postseason game where the underdog has a real shot. The game will be played on March 17th and tips at 7 p.m. on ESPNU, and stylistically, these two teams couldn’t be much different.

Wichita State is at its best when the game opens up. The Shockers like to push the pace, space the floor, and let their guards create offense.

Much of that revolves around Kenyon Giles, who has emerged as one of the most dangerous scorers in the American Athletic Conference. When Giles finds his rhythm, Wichita State can pile up points quickly. A couple of made threes and a transition bucket, and suddenly the Shockers are on a 10–0 run.

That’s the version of Wichita State that makes them dangerous in the NIT. But there’s another version that can show up too, the one that struggles when the pace slows down and every possession becomes a grind.

That’s exactly the kind of game Wyoming wants. The Cowboys come out of the Mountain West, where physical games are the norm. Wyoming doesn’t rely on flashy scoring runs. Instead, they focus on defense, rebounding, and forcing opponents to play uncomfortable half-court basketball.

They’re perfectly happy playing a game in the 60s where every possession matters. And if this one turns into that kind of game, Wyoming will feel right at home.

The Key to the Game

This matchup probably comes down to one simple question: who controls the pace?

If Wichita State speeds things up and starts hitting shots, they’ll likely take control. But if Wyoming can slow things down, win the rebounding battle, and keep Giles from getting into a rhythm, things could get interesting late.

That’s when pressure starts to shift to the higher seed. And in tournaments like the NIT, that’s often when upsets happen.

Wichita State probably has the best individual player on the floor, but Wyoming’s style can frustrate teams that prefer to run. If the Cowboys keep the game physical and force Wichita State into a half-court battle, they’ve got a real chance to steal this one.

Prediction: Wyoming 69, Wichita State 66

It may not be the biggest game of March, but don’t be shocked if Wyoming walks out of Tulsa with the NIT’s first surprise of the night.